The 100th anniversary of the outbreak of the First World War is approaching, thus there is a growing interest in the analysis in causes, course and the aftermath of the global conflict. An important in these considerations takes Jan Bloch and his views contained in his "Bible of pacifism"- 6 volume work "The War of the Future in its Technical Economic and Political Relations", published day before First International Peace Conference in Hague in 1899.  Pertinence of this idea was acknowledged by Margaret MacMillan - dean of Old Souls College, Oxford, whose interview was conducted by Adam Leszczyński and published in Tygodnik Historyczny ("Ale historia") by "Gazeta Wyborcza"on 23rd of June this year. Below you will find a part from the said interview:
"Did anyone expect that the war will be so long and exhausting? 
Few people, including Lord Kirchener, British Secretary of State for War, wrote that the war could last over 3 years, however no one believed him. Or Jewish-Polish-Russian banker, Jan Bloch, born in Radom, at the time on the territory annexed by Russia, who converted to Christianity and gathered a vast fortune. Bloch wrote 6 volume literary work entitled "The War of the Future in its Technical Economic and Political Relations". He published it in Russian, English, French, German and Dutch and sent copies to dignitaries in Russia, France, England, German, Austria-Hungary and Switzerland. Bloch argued  that European countries have considerable assets and great industrial potential which fosters defensive capabilities and when the military conflict starts, neither side will be strong enough to win, yet both will be strong enough to effectively defend themselves. During some meeting in London with military personnel, they expressed their doubts about Bloch: "what can a banker know about war? He is not a soldier." People easily ignore arguments that do not support their views."
Course of First World War confirmed validity of Bloch's reasoning, not only as to the length of the conflict. Polish banker and pacifist rightly claimed that this will be trench warfare (vide: Verdun), that it will seriously affect civilian population, bring famine and destruction on a scale never seen before, finally that it will cause mass migration with unforeseeable consequences (October revolution and its consequences). Hundredth anniversary of the Great War is a good occasion to remind ourselves about the work of people who warned us about the threat...